A long way to democracy

After more than half a century of military dictatorship, Myanmar is experiencing since 2010 an unprecedented political transition since the country’s Independence in 1948. The first semi-civilian government started to assume duties in March 30th 2011. Since then, it has been trying to pacify the country, which had faced the longest civil war of history for more than 60 years, and to reform the economy sector that was inherited from an outdated state-backed system. Therefore, the next years appear to be decisive for the transformation of both the political and the social landscapes. On the longer term, the turbulent history of Myanmar since its independence can explain the context in which expectations were aroused by the 2015 General Elections.

From the British Empire to Independence

In 1886, most of burmese territories passed under British control. The colonial administration dismantled the pre-existing power systems and essentially relied on some ethnic minorities, which were considered as more loyal to the British than the Burmese.
The struggle for decolonization left a bitter taste to the Burmese. In 1942, the one who will become General Aung San, national hero and founder of the modern Burma, takes part to the Japanese invasion together with the group of the "Thirty Comrades" in order to get independence for the country. He then turns against the Japanese, and starts negotiating the decolonization with the British administration. On January the 27th 1947 the « Aung San – Attlee » agreement is signed, which plans independence of the country within one year. The main concern of some British leaders, as well as Burmese ones, remains the cohesion of the new nation, which is populated by numerous ethnic groups. Historically, the inter-ethnic relations are marked by series of complex alliances and conflicts, and they barely have been subjected to any centralization attempt.
In February 1947, a conference takes place in Panglong, a small city in Shan State. It brings representatives of ethnic groups together, and reach an agreement based on the promise of equality among the peoples of Burma. According to the famous words of Aung San: "If a Bamar receives one kyat (the local currency) you will receive one kyat too." Until today, the ethnic minorities’ political demands are based upon this agreement.
On July the 19th 1947 General Aung San is assassinated. The hero of the independence never saw the achievement of his work.

On 4ht January 1948 Burma becomes independent. U Nu becomes the Prime Minister of a government with a parliamentary system. The Independence was botched. The newly formed State did not respond to social, political and ethnic expectations. With divergent interests of the various ethnic groups, civil wars soon break out, tearing the country apart. Insecurity spreads and the Burmese Army will have difficulty in containing the Mon, Shan, Kayin and Kachin groups which rebel one after another against the central power.
In the early 60’s both the economic, political and security assessments of the first years of Independence are terrible.

The coup of General Ne Win

In 1962 after overthrowing the civil government, the Army takes over power. General Ne Win, also member of the "Thirty Comrades" and former ally of Aung San, runs the country according to the “Burmese way to socialism”, a doctrine mixing Buddhism and socialism, with a unique party system. To foster a greater national cohesion, he intends to ethnically and religiously unify the country. The Army, main actor of the nation-building, is not able to settle the ethnic issues and uses coercion, which exacerbates its unpopularity.

Aung San Suu Kyi, icon of a country

In 1988 popular uprisings lead to the Ne Win’s resignation. A junta called "The State Law and Order Restauration Council" (SLORC) takes power. Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of the General Aung San, enters politics during a visit to Burma (at that time she was living in London with her British husband), when public uprisings protest against military rule. She soon will embody the democratic hopes of the whole country. The junta accepts to organize parliamentary elections in 1990 but refuses to validate its result. The National League for Democracy, party from which Aung San Kyi became the general secretary, indeed gains a landslide victory, with 80% of the seats at the National Assembly. Since July 1989, Aung San Suu Kyi is under house arrest and will stay there during 6 years before being, temporarily, released. From her house in Yangon, she will learn about her electoral landslide victory. From her house too, she will hear that she has received the Nobel Prize in 1991. Yet, Myanmar will slowly evolve away from its isolationist habits. In July 1997 the country strengthens its links with regional partners and becomes a member of the Association of the South-East Asia Nations (ASEAN). The junta attempts to improve its image and changes its name into “State Peace and Development Council” (SPDC) in 1997. The political opposition nevertheless remains systematically put down and jailed, and the population is under constant State surveillance.

A roadmap to democracy

In 2003 Khin Nyunt is named Prime Minister and announces his "Roadmap to a discipline - flourishing democracy", which plans a seven step transition towards democracy. Meanwhile, the country slowly opens up. Gradually, Internet penetrates the country and so does an increasing information flow from the outside world.

Monks protesting in Yangon during the 2007 uprisings.
cc Juan Pablo Arancibia Medina

The year 2007 is marked by demonstrations - later on called "Saffron revolution" - following a sudden price increase. The Buddhist monks go out to the street beside demonstrators to defend their cause. The next year the cyclone Nargis devastates the Irrawaddy Delta, killing at least 138 000 people. This natural disaster takes place just before a referendum which will lead to the adoption of the much controversial Constitution, which secures the role of the Army within the new democratic institutions of the country.
The parliamentary elections of November 2010, the fifth of the seven steps of the "Roadmap", are followed by the release of the emblematic Aung San Suu Kyi. The new President, Thein Sein, is enthroned in March 2011. He will soon organize the liberation of political prisoners and the signing of ceasefire agreements with ethnic armed groups. Besides, the new parliament launches a reform on the legal framework, improving the freedom of expression and facilitating, among others, foreign investments. Then, in April 2012 By-elections, Aung San Suu Kyi and 41 members of her party, the LND, are elected to the parliament, thereby confirming the unequaled scale of the reforms. Yet the Myanmar political scene remains under the domination of the Army, experiencing a transition in many respects under its control.

Thein Sein and the American president Barack Obama at Yangon on the 19th of November 2012.
cc Pete Souza